BTC · KALSHI 15-MINUTE CONTRACTS
One contract.
A record you can check.
Real market identifiers, forecasts recorded before close, and grading against Kalshi's official result.
Shadow validation. This workflow runs prospectively without placing trades or sending customer contract alerts. Its probabilities use an independent Coinbase spot proxy and are not yet calibrated to Kalshi's benchmark settlement. This is separate from the paid spot service and its record.
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What this record tests
We discover the current KXBTC15M market, validate its duration and rules, and use its actual opening target. The early decision is due one minute after opening; updates are due with ten and five minutes left. A decision more than 25 seconds late is marked missed. Missing targets, stale inputs and changed terms cause a skip. Decisions are never filled in after the fact.
The simple baseline calls YES when the same spot proxy is at or above the actual strike. It is graded on the same non-abstaining calls as the model. Brier score measures probability error on all issued estimates, including early abstentions; lower is better. Neither accuracy nor Brier score establishes a profitable entry after fees.
How settlement differs from the input
Kalshi's contract compares sixty-second BRTI benchmark averages. We use Kalshi's published final result for grading. The model input is Coinbase spot; it is not the BRTI feed. We do not infer a Kalshi outcome from that spot price. Contract details and source prices are available in the owner review; this public page shares derived decisions and aggregate results, not a quote feed.