What reference price does StrikePing use?
The service uses Coinbase BTC-USD, ETH-USD and SOL-USD one-minute spot candles. Its reference value for a candle is the average of that candle's open, high, low and close: (open + high + low + close) ÷ 4. This average is StrikePing's definition; it is not a claim about a trading venue's settlement rule.
Which minutes define a window?
The starting reference comes from the minute immediately before the window opens. The final reference comes from the window's last minute. For a 16:30–16:45 UTC window, the target uses the 16:29 candle and the final value uses the 16:44 candle. Candle values are available after their minute completes.
The result is UP if the final reference is at or above the starting reference; otherwise it is DOWN. For example, a starting value of $100 and a final value of $100 count as UP under this definition. These numbers are illustrative, not recorded market results.
Will the target match Kalshi or another platform?
It may not. Each platform defines its own contract target, settlement source and observation period. StrikePing does not copy a platform's target from a trading account or show venue order-book prices. A small reference difference can change the result when a window ends near its target. Always read the specific market's published rules rather than treating StrikePing's result as the venue's settlement.
What price informs an alert?
At the scheduled decision, the model compares the latest usable spot observation with the window's starting reference and estimates the probability over the time remaining. The displayed target stays fixed for that window. The spot observation and probability can change at the next update.
What if the final price is unavailable?
Settlement is retried as data becomes available. A window whose final-minute price never arrives is eventually marked void rather than assigned a guessed result. Missing or unusably old data can also prevent an alert. The service walkthrough explains the timing and delivery limits.
Why publish this definition?
A result is meaningful only when the reference, timing and grading rule are clear. Keep those definitions consistent when comparing early alerts and timed updates. See the sample feed for how a target and closing time appear on a card.
Source documentation
Coinbase's candle API documentation defines the underlying time, open, high, low and close fields and describes possible gaps. The averaging and grading rules above are StrikePing's own product definitions.